Eventi Chiave nell'Industria PP H1 2025: Capacità in Aumento, Inversioni Commerciali e Impulso Politico – Cambiamenti che Devi Comprendere!

This first half, the PP industry has fully entered "expansion mode": new capacity surged to 3.655 million tons, a year-on-year jump of 58.91%! Domestic total capacity has now exceeded 48.165 million tons/year, hitting a new all-time high.

查看细节，主要参与者轮流增加产量：玉龙石化在1月份启动了80万吨；内蒙古宝丰在2月至3月发布了两批共计100万吨；埃克森美孚（惠州）在4月份跟进了95.5万吨；玉龙在6月份又增加了40万吨，镇海炼化与化工补充了50万吨……新产能主要集中在三个核心区域：华东、华南和华北。

随着如此多的供应同时涌入市场，贸易的压力达到了极限。交易者每天都在担心如何卸货，市场情绪“跌入谷底”，价格几乎无法抬头！

从一月到四月，PP市场几乎被关税战争垄断：中国与美国的摩擦升级，额外关税飙升至125%！全球贸易环境惨淡——客户犹豫不决，交易商库存积压，工厂不得不降低运营率，价格持续下跌，整个行业陷入阴霾。

But a sudden turnaround came in May! The Geneva Agreement invalidated 91% of the additional tariffs outright! With trade barriers dismantled, export inquiries skyrocketed like a rocket, and the supply chain sprang back to life – who wouldn’t call this reversal "thrilling"?

When tensions flare in the 中东, our PP market feels the heat. After all, the 中东 is a key source of our PP imports – instability there spells trouble:

国际原油价格飙升，拉动了上游原材料如石脑油和丙烯单体的价格，瞬间推高了PP生产成本。更糟糕的是，中东货物的到达时间变得不确定，运输风险激增。由于担心短缺，下游工厂纷纷“囤货以求安全”，在这种恐慌中推动了短期价格上涨。

All we can say is: when geopolitical risks strike, the market becomes a "random button" – everyone must stay sharp when restocking!

好消息！第三批消费品以旧换新资金预计将在七月到达——这是一剂强心针！

Think about it: trade-in policies for home appliances and automobiles will surge replacement demand, and PP, a staple in injection molding and modified plastics (e.g., white appliance casings, car interiors), will directly benefit.

Short-term, downstream sectors may stock up early ahead of the policy, and with the traditional peak season approaching, prices might hold steady. Long-term, inventories could be 消化 (digested), and supply-demand balance improved – this policy dividend is worth watching!

从1月到5月，PP进出口数据呈现出鲜明的对比：进口达到139.48万吨，同比下降76,200吨（-5.18%）；但出口达到132.86万吨，同比激增21.56%，增加了235,600吨！

这意味着什么？我们的PP正在变得更加具有竞争力！随着国内产能的提升和技术的升级，我们正在争取更多的全球市场份额。以这种速度，出口可能会成为平衡国内供应的“关键举措”！